Using OSINT to Better Understand China’s Actions

China’s expansionist political and military operations threaten the post-Cold War security valued by the United States and its allies. The balance of power in the Pacific and the broader world may depend on the ability of the Department of Defense and intelligence community to better understand China’s motivations and action — particularly its hoped-for annexation of Taiwan —then plan and react accordingly. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help in this effort. A new Babel Street white paper discusses how.

Chasing the Chinese Dream

China has engaged in numerous political and military actions in support of the expansionist Chinese Deam. The Dream is an effort to propel China to global supremacy through economic domination and military might. In doing so, it would overtake the United States as the world’s preeminent power.

Efforts at economic domination take many forms. They begin with China’s treatment of its neighbors — the island nations of the Pacific. China now pressures some of these nations to cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan and forge them with China instead.

To do this, the People’s Republic of China in recent years has launched an ambitious campaign of checkbook diplomacy, seeking to expand its influence among tiny Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Valid business and economic interests certainly drive some of China’s financial engagement with these nations. (China has legitimate needs for access to certain fisheries and mineral deposits, as examples.) But much of China’s financial maneuvering strives to buy PICs’ allegiance.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) perhaps best embodies this type of checkbook diplomacy. One of the most ambitious infrastructure projects ever conceived, this collection of land and marine developments would physically link East Asia to Oceania, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. Its purported goal is to create new trade linkages.[1] The BRI could potentially bring PICs tremendous benefits, including ports, energy, digital and transportation networks, and new jobs.

Outside the Pacific, China in the 2010s embarked on a massive economic development initiative targeting African[2] and Latin American and Caribbean[3] countries — obtaining major infrastructure, mining, and energy contracts in return.

China often supplements this diplomacy with shows of its military might.

With more than two million people actively serving, China now boasts the world’s largest standing army. It continues to invest in both personnel and war machinery, making it a peer competitor of the United States.[3]

China deploys its military to bolster its attempts to isolate Taiwan. In the South China Sea, China fights for control of small islands and archipelagos, notably the Spratly Islands. The United States Department of Defense views these incursions as steppingstones toward China’s goal of complete control of that crucial waterway. (A quarter of all global trade flows through the South China Sea. It is also vitally important for the transport of liquified natural gas.[4])

Why does this matter to the United States?

The United States DoD and intelligence community worry that China now uses its political and military power to supplant the political relationships maintained by the United States, Australia, and New Zealand since the Cold War. Even small victories by Beijing may make a difference on the Pacific stage.

Kiribati is a PIC with a population of about 121,000. It switched allegiance from Taiwan to China five years ago, with minimal consequences. But by targeting aid to and military operations against enough small and underdeveloped nations like Kiribati, China can tip the balance of power in the Pacific. Couple this shift with the United States’ treaty obligations to Taiwan, and the threat of all-out war becomes more possible.

More likely is the previously mentioned fear of a South China Sea utterly controlled by China and its allies. As the U.S. Naval Institute notes, “gaining exclusive control of the South China Sea would contribute a great deal to [China] achieving regional and global hegemony.”[5]

How open source intelligence can help

OSINT is the practice of obtaining insight from the collection and analysis of publicly and commercially available information (PAI/CAI). This data is found on billions of top-level domains; on deep and dark web sites; and in real-world interactions generated on chat apps, on social media platforms, and in online comments. The best OSINT solutions search for information published in a plethora of languages, then return results translated into the user’s language of choice.

The insight OSINT solutions provide is important for understanding existing political and military scenarios.

As our white paper notes, censorship and autocracy merge in China to make OSINT both more important and harder to obtain. Yet OSINT solutions can aid the intelligence community, DoD, and others in better understanding China’s ambitions, finding insight even in disinformation. These capabilities imbue the United States with an improved understanding of the strategic threat China presents this country and its allies. With this insight, the United States can better chart the strategic, operational, and tactical actions necessary to protect its own best interests.

OSINT solutions glean this insight through analyses of state-controlled media outlets and official statements. Trade data and data on foreign direct investment prove valuable. Research papers give intelligence officers insight into China’s R&D priorities. Ship tracking data and satellite imagery can provide clues to China’s naval activities. So can certain social media posts from Taiwan, the Philippines, and other PICs — particularly those that discuss or picture warships and armed “fishing boats” in or near disputed waters.

OSINT’s sentiment analysis capabilities can help analysts determine how the international and world communities feel about China’s political and military engagements. This information is vital for effectively counter-messaging China’s narrative, and for obtaining local support for any political or military actions the United States and its allies may choose to take in response to China’s campaigns. Similar capabilities help analysts determine different nations’ points of view on particular scenarios.

China has undertaken a series of aggressive political and military maneuvers to fulfill the expansionist Chinese Dream. These actions undercut the best interests of the United States and its allies. To better understand and counteract China’s actions, the United States needs the insight provided by OSINT solutions.

Read our white paper to learn more.

Endnotes

1. McBride, James, and Berman, Noah et al, “China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative,” Council on Foreign Relations, February 2023, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative

2. Ditter, Timothy, “Dangers and Opportunities as China’s Loans to Africa Come Due,” Center for Naval Analysis, March 2024, https://www.cna.org/our-media/indepth/2024/03/china-loans-to-africa

3. Bruno Venditti, “Mapped: The World’s Largest Armies in 2024,” Visual Capitalist, June 2024, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-the-worlds-largest-armies-in-2024/#:~:text=China%20has%20the%20largest%20standing,of%20aircraft%20carriers%20in%20service.

4. Lopez, Todd C., “U.S. Will Continue to Operate in South China Sea to Ensure Prosperity for All,” U.S. Department of Defense News, April 2021, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2720047/us-will-continue-to-operate-in-south-china-sea-to-ensure-prosperity-for-all/#:~:text=Roughly%20a%20third%20of%20liquid,as%20well%2C%20such%20as%20fishing.

5. Martin, Morgan, “China’s Three Information Warfares,” U.S. Naval Institute, March 2021, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/march/chinas-three-information-warfares